Increase in US concerns regarding Kenya – Scott A Morgan

Guest post by Scott A. Morgan – May 18th, 2008

Earlier this year the world watched on in shock as Kenya convulsed into a state of Anarchy. A highly contested and Controversial Election resulted in the re-election of President Mwai Kibaki. Hundreds perished in the post-election strife and thousands were left homeless or internally displaced. Currently a power sharing agreement is in place but this is not the reason for concern.

Last week Kenyan counter-terrorism experts stated that they are expecting an attack in the east african country in the near future. There is a widely held belief that any potential incident will be revenge for a US Missile Strike in Somalia that killed a somali insurgent named Aden Hashi Ayro. Mr. Ayro was the military head of a somali militia called Al-Shahab. There have been several reports that indicate that this group has ties to Al-Qaida.

The concern that Al-Shahab may attack interests in Kenya is not a stretch of the imagination. After all, it was a decade ago that Al-Qaida attacked the US Embassy in Nairobi. This attack resulted in the deaths of 212 Kenyans and several Americans as well.

There is some fear and concern that any attack on Kenya will be a proxy attack against the United States. Nairobi has been an excellent partner with Washington in combating terrorism. However, there are legitimate questions that the perceived threat raises. First, what type of information has Kenya provided the US when it comes to islamists along the Somali-Kenyan border? Secondly, do both countries agree on who should be monitored or targeted for military action?

Another question that needs to be answered is just how seriously the United States is taking this threat. Last week a US warship paid a call in the port city of Mombasa. The USS Momsen (DDG-92) was conducting a joint training program with the Kenyan Navy as part of the visit. The mission of the warship is to combat piracy and terrorism in that volatile part of the world.

Another scenario could be an attempt to disrupt the grand coalition that rules Kenya. The negotiations that led to the power sharing agreement were filled with tensions. A few days ago, the government killed the leader of a militia from the western part of the country where the violence was at its very worst. There is a possibility of a revenge attack sometime in the future as well.

Many strategic thinkers are concerned that the security of Kenya could be undermined by the somali threat and could lead to an internal incident. In either case, an attack would create a new wave of violence that could undo the grand coalition. This could lead to the rupture of the close ties between the US and Kenya. In the view of some people, this could be a benefit to Kenya. However, it could deny the US of badly needed intelligence in a very unstable part of the planet.